We started with 70 players and are down to just 2 as the final of the William Hill World Championship will be decided at Alexandra Palace this evening. Will it be Michael van Gerwen or two-time defending World Champion Gary Anderson who will lift the Sid Waddell Trophy?
Odds compilers have Gerwen at 1/3, with Anderson at 11/4. In handicap terms this implies Gerwen should win this by 7-4 or better, with Marathonbet at 16/19, so bookies covering this market.
Overnight I did tip out privately (you know who you are) with Gerwen's average at over 103.50 with Paddy Power and has since been adjusted to 105.50. the value was in the disparity in prices between the highest average price, which varies between 1.33 and 1.64 and the average line, but now this has been adjusted that value is now gone. However, the other element of value
For the fact of the final being up to 13 sets does give opportunities to explore the total lines. We have the total legs line at 44.5, but with the expectation of around ten or eleven sets will require a few sets to go the distance and as we know there will be at least one or two sets that are won to nil making the task for difficult. Breaking this down further, without tie breaks the minimum legs that could be played is twenty-one, with the maximum sixty five before triggering the tie break thus seventy-one.
Elsewhere, all compilers take the view on the 180's being in excess of thirty with the line set at 32.5.
Bet365 are taking a chance on first set 180s with the line set at 3.5, 11/8 for four or more and 8/15 for fewer than four? The same firm bet on a first leg maximum and go just 8/11 on an opening leg 180, with 11/10 for no maximum. There was no maximum in the MVG semi final, but was in the Anderson semi final, but was scored by Peter Wright!
William Hill bet 7/4 on a 160 or better checkout on the night with Skybet's request a bet, that punt 8/11 that there are at least ten sets, twenty-five maximums and a 130 finish in the match. The same firm bet 4/5 on ten sets, twenty-two maximums but a 140 or better finish.
A more longshot 55/1 bet with Skybet is for both to hit a 170 finish, and both to net ten or more maximums in the match.
However the outcome, I do expect the game to be a spectacle and will head with the 8/11 with Skybet on 10 sets or more, 25 or more 180s and a 130 or better finish!
Recommendation
10+ sets, 25 180s or more & 130+ checkout - 8/11 Skybet 1pt
ARB opportunity:
I had planned on putting out the attractive MVG 3 dart average of 103.5 at 5/6 with Paddy Power, but this has now gone. There was disparity in the lines of the players and the overall who will get the highest line.
There is a 9+% ROI to be made on the final, and depends on how much you can get on?
Bwin are offering 13/20 that MVG achieves the higher average, and is as short as 1/3 with Betfred. Betfred are offering 9/4 Anderson achieves the higher 3 dart average.
In example terms IF you staked £150 in total:
£100 - 13/20 Bwin
£50.77 - 9/4 Betfred
You would achieve in excess of £14 profit, which is nearing 9.5% ROI regardless of the outcome.
Now if you were to follow the above example, adjusting the betfred stake for it not to flag up as an ARB bet would be recommended.
I am sharing this will you all and happy new year.
Odds compilers have Gerwen at 1/3, with Anderson at 11/4. In handicap terms this implies Gerwen should win this by 7-4 or better, with Marathonbet at 16/19, so bookies covering this market.
Overnight I did tip out privately (you know who you are) with Gerwen's average at over 103.50 with Paddy Power and has since been adjusted to 105.50. the value was in the disparity in prices between the highest average price, which varies between 1.33 and 1.64 and the average line, but now this has been adjusted that value is now gone. However, the other element of value
For the fact of the final being up to 13 sets does give opportunities to explore the total lines. We have the total legs line at 44.5, but with the expectation of around ten or eleven sets will require a few sets to go the distance and as we know there will be at least one or two sets that are won to nil making the task for difficult. Breaking this down further, without tie breaks the minimum legs that could be played is twenty-one, with the maximum sixty five before triggering the tie break thus seventy-one.
Elsewhere, all compilers take the view on the 180's being in excess of thirty with the line set at 32.5.
Bet365 are taking a chance on first set 180s with the line set at 3.5, 11/8 for four or more and 8/15 for fewer than four? The same firm bet on a first leg maximum and go just 8/11 on an opening leg 180, with 11/10 for no maximum. There was no maximum in the MVG semi final, but was in the Anderson semi final, but was scored by Peter Wright!
William Hill bet 7/4 on a 160 or better checkout on the night with Skybet's request a bet, that punt 8/11 that there are at least ten sets, twenty-five maximums and a 130 finish in the match. The same firm bet 4/5 on ten sets, twenty-two maximums but a 140 or better finish.
A more longshot 55/1 bet with Skybet is for both to hit a 170 finish, and both to net ten or more maximums in the match.
However the outcome, I do expect the game to be a spectacle and will head with the 8/11 with Skybet on 10 sets or more, 25 or more 180s and a 130 or better finish!
Recommendation
10+ sets, 25 180s or more & 130+ checkout - 8/11 Skybet 1pt
ARB opportunity:
I had planned on putting out the attractive MVG 3 dart average of 103.5 at 5/6 with Paddy Power, but this has now gone. There was disparity in the lines of the players and the overall who will get the highest line.
There is a 9+% ROI to be made on the final, and depends on how much you can get on?
Bwin are offering 13/20 that MVG achieves the higher average, and is as short as 1/3 with Betfred. Betfred are offering 9/4 Anderson achieves the higher 3 dart average.
In example terms IF you staked £150 in total:
£100 - 13/20 Bwin
£50.77 - 9/4 Betfred
You would achieve in excess of £14 profit, which is nearing 9.5% ROI regardless of the outcome.
Now if you were to follow the above example, adjusting the betfred stake for it not to flag up as an ARB bet would be recommended.
I am sharing this will you all and happy new year.