Hi to all the new members of this feature. I hope this has been well received, and cannot guarantee how long this will go on for. Let me explain further.
When we looked for a email client in 2015 it was because this email begun blocking this feature from going out. Our email provider let us down, so are back for now on this platform!
This weeks column is based around corners as the subject. Now you will not find this information printed by another author on the planet as we believe this is a market some will not touch let alone write about. In the football league (Championship - League two) of the 36 games played just 25% saw the game with 12 or more corners. Now some bookies priced most game up as either 10.5 or 11.5 on the two-way markets, hence our basis for 12 as the higher line to work with.
The championship saw 4/12 with 12 or more corners, just 2/12 in league one and 3/12 in league two. Certainly a win-win from the bookies on this market.
Based on one set of results we cannot form an accurate direction but we will be tracking the results and forming decisions from this.
We have the stats based on the Premier League last season and one tie that does stand out is Sunderland's line is 4/7 with Bet365 for over 2.5 corners. Sunderland's average last season was 4, so 365 have this well covered. One game that potentially stands out is the LIVE game on Friday, where Nottingham Forest travel to Brighton.
One firm has the team corners priced, and the line is at 4.5. Forest pocketed 8 last week in the 4-3 thriller with Burton and Brighton was awarded 7 in the process of a stalemate at Brighton. The line is set at 10.5 for the game at 1.95 with BetVictor for 11 or more in the game. Unibet are in my view offering a shade of value at 21/20 for over 4.5 Forest corners and I cannot ignore this, even at this early stage.
Going across to the both team to score platform, all but one game are odds against for both to net, with the other at 10/11. Similar reading in the Championship where the shortest price is for the Brentford game to see both sides net.
League one is practically all 50/50 shots with the implied margins and similar plays out into League two. This shows the bookie compilers are playing with some caution!
I am not in a position where I want to consider lumping on anything this early in the season, and with some of the match prices there are valid reason to oppose some sides at home especially with the bias installed for sides at home in general. We was unlucky last week with opposing Reading, but this was for the very reason that the outright price in our view should have been more towards the 11/8-6/4 price rather than the shade of odds on with the compilers. This method of thinking will not turn heads in one week, but more in a longer view!
Looking at potential plays for this week, I am drawn to Cambridge in League two not to lose against Colchester and despite the match price below 2/1 are 24/23 with BetVictor with 0 on the Asian handicap, so a draw no bet scenario and 10/9 with marathonbet thus 2.11 for the same outcome.
Recommendations
N Forest - over 4.5 match corners - 21/20 Unibet 2.5pts
Cambridge draw no bet Vs Colchester - 2.11 Marathonbet 1pt
Teams to score:
Newcastle
Derby
Milwall
Walsall
Portsmouth
Pays 3.19 Boylesports for all five teams to net - 1 pt
When we looked for a email client in 2015 it was because this email begun blocking this feature from going out. Our email provider let us down, so are back for now on this platform!
This weeks column is based around corners as the subject. Now you will not find this information printed by another author on the planet as we believe this is a market some will not touch let alone write about. In the football league (Championship - League two) of the 36 games played just 25% saw the game with 12 or more corners. Now some bookies priced most game up as either 10.5 or 11.5 on the two-way markets, hence our basis for 12 as the higher line to work with.
The championship saw 4/12 with 12 or more corners, just 2/12 in league one and 3/12 in league two. Certainly a win-win from the bookies on this market.
Based on one set of results we cannot form an accurate direction but we will be tracking the results and forming decisions from this.
We have the stats based on the Premier League last season and one tie that does stand out is Sunderland's line is 4/7 with Bet365 for over 2.5 corners. Sunderland's average last season was 4, so 365 have this well covered. One game that potentially stands out is the LIVE game on Friday, where Nottingham Forest travel to Brighton.
One firm has the team corners priced, and the line is at 4.5. Forest pocketed 8 last week in the 4-3 thriller with Burton and Brighton was awarded 7 in the process of a stalemate at Brighton. The line is set at 10.5 for the game at 1.95 with BetVictor for 11 or more in the game. Unibet are in my view offering a shade of value at 21/20 for over 4.5 Forest corners and I cannot ignore this, even at this early stage.
Going across to the both team to score platform, all but one game are odds against for both to net, with the other at 10/11. Similar reading in the Championship where the shortest price is for the Brentford game to see both sides net.
League one is practically all 50/50 shots with the implied margins and similar plays out into League two. This shows the bookie compilers are playing with some caution!
I am not in a position where I want to consider lumping on anything this early in the season, and with some of the match prices there are valid reason to oppose some sides at home especially with the bias installed for sides at home in general. We was unlucky last week with opposing Reading, but this was for the very reason that the outright price in our view should have been more towards the 11/8-6/4 price rather than the shade of odds on with the compilers. This method of thinking will not turn heads in one week, but more in a longer view!
Looking at potential plays for this week, I am drawn to Cambridge in League two not to lose against Colchester and despite the match price below 2/1 are 24/23 with BetVictor with 0 on the Asian handicap, so a draw no bet scenario and 10/9 with marathonbet thus 2.11 for the same outcome.
Recommendations
N Forest - over 4.5 match corners - 21/20 Unibet 2.5pts
Cambridge draw no bet Vs Colchester - 2.11 Marathonbet 1pt
Teams to score:
Newcastle
Derby
Milwall
Walsall
Portsmouth
Pays 3.19 Boylesports for all five teams to net - 1 pt