Years on from graduating there is so much to talk about in the gambling industry. Especially the sports book, you could identify thousands of narrowed down topics to why books are priced to a particular percentage and investigating the likely reasons. However, today, one particular outcome I look at is the not to lose market.
What is the not to lose market? The previous narrative identifies the outcome you are speculating on, but there appears to be many similar markets, but are they all offering the same prices?
I touched on the subjects in my early days conducting preliminary research. However, one of the sites which I work for actually took on some comments I made with credit to myself on that certain markets for certain outcomes can often be indifferent from the usual market that you may actually look for.
One market which I can relate to is the corners market. Often you will see the line as 10.5 for instance and one bookmaker Bet365 on Arsenal Vs West Ham have chalked up over 10.5 corners in the game at 10/11 (1.91) but looking at an identical market with the same bookmaker on the Asian lines offer 39/40 (1.975)
One example above is the Arsenal/West Ham game on 25th August 2018 at 15:00 where you feel the overs or unders are your bet, the Asian lines option is the better value.
Why is this?
The Asian handicap market theory is designed to eliminate the eventuality of a draw outcome, by giving the underdog side a perceived measured handicap start to even the probability as close to 100% as possible. The Asian lines often bet to a lower over-round than the European market and could give punters another aspect of where the money is going if the bookmakers have adjusted their positions.
The corners bet was a mere example of how the Asian line compared to a European market can differ.
I really like the not to lose outcome, where I will look to take on the underdog to get a result often away from home against the favourite. Usually this is in the form of a what’s known best as the double chance market to get the draw on your side in most cases and in exchange terms effectively laying the outcome you do not fancy usually at the shortest price.
The double chance market allows you to bet that there is no draw in the game by backing either team to win, backing the home side and the draw and the visiting team and the draw to come in. For instance, looking at the double chance market in respect you are looking for the underdog side not to lose the match you would take them on and the draw to cover the not to lose aspect.
For the underdog, you will find other markets, which effectively yield the same outcome. This would be the handicap +1 market and Asian Handicap market as the obvious markets out there.
Using the Fulham versus Burnley example on Sunday 26th August 2018, Fulham are 51/50 with Maratho bet and evens general to win the game, but what are the underdogs handicap prices?
Burnley are a shade of odds on generally on the Asian handicap +0.5 market, which translates as the win or draw market and 26/25 with Blacktype, which actually creates a slight under-round of the market. (Fulham 49.50% and 49.02%) creating a 98.52% market for arbitration punters skimming off the small margins.
Anyway, Burnley’s Asian line price is 2.04 with Blacktype, the general +1 handicap is 10/11 with Spreadex (commission based) and 10/11 (1.91) generally. The double chance coupon is best 10/11 (1.91).
To illustrate, if you had £100 on the Asian handicap at 2.04 on the Sunday game this would return £204.00, and if you punted on either of the other two European markets at 1.91, you would return £190.90 on the outcome leaving a £13 deficit on this particular market.
Advice – always check to between the same markets related to where the best return is potentially. Looking back at the corners example, this was by the same firm in general and the reasoning behind this goes down to the over round applied between the Asian and European market books.
I could identify plenty of other games where a similarity takes place, however this is advisory for the punter to take responsibility in capturing the best price where possible.
Very rarely have I come across an Asian market where the line has resulted in it being shorter than the European line for the handicap bets. One might assume that the European markets are adjusted accordingly.
Lastly – not all bookmakers offer Asian handicap (William Hill/Coral/Ladbrokes/Skybet) all examples, whereas the likes of Bet365, Unibet, Marathonbet and BetVictor do.