Belgium HT/FT double result and England win at 7/5 with Coral for 4 points
A simple bet - World Cup day 5
Belgium HT/FT double result and England win at 7/5 with Coral for 4 points
My World Cup bets:
Brazil to reach Semi Finals - 6/5 Skybet 2.5pts
Group A Winner - Uruguay - 10/11 Hills
Germany - Over 9.5 goals in the World Cup - 10/11 Bet365 3pts
England to reach quarter finals - 5/6 Bet365 2pts
Can Netherlands retain their Darts title namely - the World Cup of Darts?
My opinion is yes!
The draw for the World Cup was made shortly before the finale of the PDC Premier League Finals, which I was in attendance for.
Betway World Cup of Darts
(1) Scotland v United States of America
Denmark v Brazil
(8) Austria v Japan
Italy v Canada
(5) Wales v Thailand
Switzerland v China
(4) Australia v Hong Kong
Russia v Spain
(2) England v Czech Republic
New Zealand v Singapore
(7) Belgium v Republic of Ireland
Greece v Finland
(6) Northern Ireland v Poland
Sweden v Germany
(3) Netherlands v Gibraltar
Hungary v South Africa
Looking at the betting:
Netherlands - 1/1 Betway and Bwin/Sportingbet
Scotland - 11/4 Betway
England - 5/1 Betfred
Australia - 20/1 general
Bar - 20/1 +
The way the seedlings work are on the basis of the team members respective ranking at the cut off. Scotland are top seeds via Peter Wright and Gary Anderson but can they work more as a team from seeing them stunned last year?
We know MVG has upmost respect for his partner Barneveld which has shades of Taylor/Lewis last year as a father/son combination from the year prior!
Netherlands biggest threat(s) will come at the hands of a seeded quarter final with the pair from Northern Ireland (Gurney and Dolan) and before anyone comments that Dolan is a weak link, he created history in his own nations event and in my opinion will come through stronger than critics suggests not to let down Gurney!
Netherlands second threat before the final is England - Rob Cross who seemingly has unforgettable resilience over the longer format! His partner Dave Chisnall is in by virtue of his ranking although Michael Smith - seen as some people’s rightful partner for Cross has been below par for the ranking he holds and will subsequently lose in the event he is unable to match the monies made on the two-year rolling basis.
Chisnall’s main weapon is his ability to trouser the maximums and on form is the best 180 hitter on the planet!
Looking at the other half of the draw Australia are always a consideration and 20/1 layers think they are not up to the job with the team of Whitlock and Anderson (Kyle). We remember how dedicated and emotional Paul Nicholson was in the final in 2012.
Whitlock’s Premier League peaked too soon this year and Anderson will need to fly out the blocks which he is capable to upset the mathematical algorithm and layer opinion!
I could write 000’s of words with what if’s in this event but consider the Dutch pair eyeballing collaborative success.
There are far worse 1/1 shots on any sportsbook coupon and truly believe this is a fair coin toss outcome and considering bookmakers price this at 10/11 each, it is worth taking.
Netherlands - outright 1/1 Bwin/Betway 6pts
Minimum price acceptable - 1/1
We are at the end of the Premier League road where we learnt a few things along the road.
Briefly that MVG and Cross are a punters nightmare, Gerwyn Price used apparent excuses for his premier league experience and Peter Wright is certainly customer. Although a massive credit back on April 5th when the death was announced of Eric Bristow during his match with Daryl Gurney and both went to an emotional 6-6 draw!
MVG opened the market briefly at 5/6 in places before heading off at 8/11 to win the PL outright and is 8/15 heading into tonight having to battle Cross in the opening semi final before playing Anderson or Smith in the final.
MVG is an implied 65.89% chance of winning the event and is no bigger than 1.21 at Marathonbet to topple Cross making MVG around a 1/4 shot to win in the final approximately.
Gary Anderson is next best at 4/1 to win the title once again and will be on implied odds be just over 5/2 in the final if he bests Michael Smith in combined Ante post pricing betting to a best overall 103% this is how it shapes:
MVG - 8/15 (65.89%
Anderson - 4/1 (20%)
Cross - 8/1 (11.11%)
Smith - 14/1 (6.67%)
MVG Vs Cross -
Head-to-head: Van Gerwen leads 10-2
Michael van Gerwen has never failed to make a Premier League final and he should make it one more time in London writes Dave South.
Despite making his sixth consecutive appearance at finals night MVG has been stunned twice in this time by Raymond van Barneveld in 2014 (25/1 at the start of the evening) and Gary Anderson a year later, which may put you off at 8/15?
Van Gerwen and Anderson are a short 1.69 to make the final with Marathonbet.
MVG’s opponent Cross is also suffering from a discomforting chest injury, as is Michael Smith, who plays Anderson in the second semi, which forced Cross to miss last weekends European Tour with Smith suffering a rare whitewash in the event.
Van Gerwen has played Cross twice in the competition and thumped him 7-2 each time and will make a clean sweep. Picking a market is tricky though with main markets priced to attract a difference of opinion and find it tough to ignore one or more finishes on the Bullseye at evens with Hills. In addition MVG to hit two or more 100+ checkouts at 11/8 with the same firm may appeal in a race to ten.
Smith Vs Anderson - Anderson leads 9-3
The pair get to create a premier league decider having traded victories this season but under issues and circumstances and it doesn’t bode well for Smith having been diagnosed with pleurisy.
Smith didn’t look well last week looked in some pain against Barney. 48 hours later appeared at the European Tour in an attempt to partner Rob Cross at the World Cup but missed out to Dave Chisnall and would have surely withdrawn from that event had the circumstances been different.
Anderson in comparison is in good nick and the pair ended the campaign respectively 57 maximums to Smith’s 41 over the campaign and is 5/6 with 188bet, Matchbook and Sunbets to trouser the most maximums. Anderson is 6/5 to win and hit the most maximums
MVG/Cross - 1+ Bullseye finish - 1/1 William Hill 2pts
Anderson win/most 180s - 6/5 Betway 3pts
The final week of the Premier League takes place and Gary Anderson’s defeat to Raymond van Barneveld has kept Daryl Gurney’s hope of making the last four a narrow but possible chance writes Dave South. This will of course mean Gurney will need to win and win well against Peter Wright, with failure to do so putting the Scot in the driving seat for fourth place without throwing a dart. The leg difference is 12 as it stands and even if Gurney won the game it would rely on MVG to beat Anderson by a modest margin also.
I am sure come the evening Sky Sports will enlist the permutations for the evening, but with a best of twelve and a twelve leg difference between the pair, the maths can be done.
Looking at the outrights MVG remains the 8/15 favourite with 10bet, with Gary Anderson next in at 9/2. Cross is 11/2 with Bet365 with 10bet 12/1 on Michael Smith.
Week 15 fixtures
Michael Smith Vs Raymond van Barneveld (6/4 – 7/2 – 6/4)
Michael Smith will confirm second place with at least a point against Raymond van Barneveld. However, Barney has more to play for, as Smith has banked at least £80K irrespective of finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th. With his likely opponent Rob Cross in the semi final, this is essentially an extra £10K for Barney if Gurney fails to win his match later on the card.
Barney’s management would have informed Ray about this and has nothing to lose, hence the odds compiler pricing at 6/4, which is fair. You would have to question whether Smith will come into this in full flow and taking Barney at evens on a draw no bet scenario would be the most appropriate play although Smith has been unwell recently so taking the punt on the Dutch Maestro to win the 180 tally is as big as 2/1 with Betfair but and attractive 10/11with the handicap start.
Peter Wright Vs Daryl Gurney (7/5 – 7/2 – 8/5
Snakebite will admit that his campaign has been lessor than expected for this campaign and will look forward to the rest of the season.
Gurney has it all to do and all the hard work displayed could be simply overturned with the following game with Anderson. However the scenario that Gurney could actually finish sixth will feel like a kick in the teeth.
The danger is, Wright is playing with no pressure and Gurney is, so factoring this into a punting price makes a Gurney 8/5 price a no-no. However will Wright bother playing his true capable self with nothing really to play for?
A real punters nightmare at the time of writing.
Michael van Gerwen Vs Gary Anderson (8/13 – 4/1 – 18/5)
Mighty Mike has finished top of the table again, and has pocketed a cool league winners bonus. But wlll MVG want to put all his efforts in to hoover up a final win, where this could be a dress rehearsal of the fist semi final the following week?
The betting suggests that MVG is a tad below a 60% chance to win with Anderson nearer a 4/1 poke, and a game we will sit out of. MVG will want to shine especially on Scottish ground and -2.5 legs
U44.5 legs on the night - 5/6 Betfred 4pts
MVG win and Gurney most 180s draw no bet - 23/20 Coral 2pts
One bet i do like - Betfred offer total legs for the night. The line is set at 44.5 and with only a possible 48 legs to be played is worth a play, meaning if every game averages 11 legs we will win.
Total legs - Weekly specials
U44.5 legs - 5/6 @ Betfred 4pts
Premier League Darts Week 14 from Birmingham sees the penultimate round of games before finals night in two weeks time.
A special thanks for some contribution last week from Carl Redden @reddencarl - his own preview enabled me to identify three bets where one was denied by the draw.
With Whitlock, Wright and Barney out of the picture now only fighting for final place prize money attention turns to Gary Anderson and Daryl Gurney where the Irishman still has a chance albeit a slim chance to make finals night but will need other results to go his way. Cross and Smith are all but at the o2 in a fortnight with only mathematical permutations standing in their way.
Wright Vs Whitlock - Wright leads 10-7
For backers of Wright summing up the campaign has been below par at times and it’s counted cumulatively over the weeks with eight games without a win during the competition. Whitlock on the other hand got off to such a bright start only to pocket two points from the last possible ten.
With Wright at 4/6 he will be playing for pride now but Whitlock at 100/30 generally is surely a more back-able price for many.
I was attracted to the Whitlock checkout line at 95 until I spotted some lacklustre checkouts and his last big checkout back on week 9.
Either player to finish a leg on bull may be the play at 13/8 with Hills.
Rob Cross v Michael van Gerwen
Van Gerwen leads 9-2
It sounds routine enough for backers but Van Gerwen’s form has been patchy over recent weeks with just one win in his last four games. The newly crowned Dutch equivalent of an MBE awarded to MVG in the last week has seen Mighty Mike as one of the youngest to have ever been awarded by their country.
Toeing the oche against Rob Cross wouldn’t have left much time for MVG to practice not that he does much of that as proclaimed by the man himself.
Cross is a big price here but this is MVG’s territory but Cross os generally reliable on his maximum hitting netting four in all but one of the last four played. Sportingbet and Bwin offer 19/20 Cross hits four or more tonight.
Daryl Gurney v Michael Smith
Smith leads 6-3
This could be the game of the night as Gurney has to win to keep his chances alive of making top four. Cross may have mathematically qualified before they toe the oche meaning Gurney must win and win well.
Michael Smith has lost three of his last five, which has coincided with illness.
Bully Boy seems to be on the road to recovery the chances are he’s not going to be on top form so surely Daryl Gurney has a better chance than usual. And let’s face it, there’s precious little between these arrowsmiths anyway.
Smith won the previous showdown 7-4 in Week Two. But that was when Superchin was finding his feet and missing his doubles and the Northern Irishman is a different proposition now.
Gurney has lost just three of 12 since that reverse in Cardiff and needs to win to retain any hope of making it to the O2.
Gary Anderson v Raymond van Barneveld - Anderson leads 21-17
Gary Anderson beat Barney 7-4 on this stage 12 months ago and can repeat this feat tonight.
Barney has little to play for but position and Anderson really needs a win to avoid finishing 4th and potentially facing MVG in the Semi final at the o2.
The 4/6 on Anderson is a fair price with him throwing first enhanced to 7/4 in places for the win and most maximums.
Cross - Over 3.5 180s 19/20 Bwin and Sportingbet 2pts
Gurney - Draw no bet - 1/1 general 1pt
G Anderson - 4/6 general 2 pts
Anderson Win/most 180s - 7/4 Skybet/Betfair (13/8 acceptable) 1pt
Premier League Darts from Manchester
A massive thank you and contribution goes to Carl Redden (@reddencarl) for part compilation of this content via his precious time and opinion assisting me going into this week’s fixtures due to time reasons this week.
Similarly to Carl we were both stung on Cross drawing with Wright albeit the bet being in the bag early on which saw a 80% trade out in play. Punters alike holding out was subsequently bitten with the 6-6 Tie.
Manchester this week looks a far tougher betting heat with MVG playing twice, while Gary Anderson takes on rock bottom Simon Whitlock and the remaining two matches it is hard to find any edge between Peter Wright v Michael Smith or Barney v Rob Cross so a tough coupon to find value with
Daryl Gurney v Michael van Gerwen
The second match on the card is sure to features plenty of power scoring to mention the least
This week is key for both, more so for Gurney although unluckily knowing MVG has experienced two hiccups recently.
Expected to get between three or four legs off the World number one, who will be a different animal now that the pressure is off playing away from Holland, and in the 10 or 11 legs played I can see Gurney registering over maximums based off his average. However despite leading the chart overall will the competition curtail his maximum count. Although Carl going on a particular punt I am willing to look at the total numbers and fewer than 8 maximums in 12 legs is a consideration with Coral at 4/5
Simon Whitlock Vs Gary Anderson
This is a game that Anderson is short at 1/3 best with Betfair and the Aussie is as big as 7/1 to stun the Scot.
The 1/3 in our view is too short for a player to take on over the format. In respect MVG is higher at 4/11 to beat Gurney albeit circumstantial. Whitlock has lost his direction from the early weeks in the competition in such a way layers are best 4/9 that the game does not go the distance.
Anderson is no bigger for the most maximums at 4/5 and would be interested how a chasing Whitlock can reply.
A sofa game for us.
Raymond van Barneveld v Rob Cross
Barney sprung back last week but has too much in our view to catch-up with and should be a win for Cross on the pressure basis.
Cross is 5/6 with Betfair and one or two other firms to upset the former five time world champion.
I feel Barney will play for position although Cross is playing towards determining his semi final opponent at the o2.
The number of maximums seems generous based on 60 legs maximums and still 35 as the line. Too high for us so deep down we go fewer.
U7.5 180s - Gurney Vs MVG 4/5 Coral 1pt
Cross to beat Barney - 5/6 Betfair - 1pt
U35.5 180s - weekly specials 6/5 Sportingbet and Bwin 2pts
Tonight’s darts in brief
U35.5 180s tonight 10/11 Sportingbet and Bwin 2pts
Cross to beat Wright - 11/10 Betfair Sportsbook (evens acceptable) 1.5pts
More to follow
A double header in Holland could decide at least two of the four places for finals night and Rob Cross can be one of them to secure his place IF he can stretch to a clean sweep.
Michael Smith sets off against Gary Anderson, where the onus is on the Scot to get the points whereas if Smith were to lose would more than likely open up the field. Although no disrespect to Smith a victory would actually in my view have Smith one victory away from finals night.
Anderson will want to overturn the loss faced early into the campaign and could be well backed at just below evens with Smith at 5/2 and the draw around 7/2.
Looking at the maximums, Anderson has nailed 38 in the competition with Bullyboy a shade behind at 24. The last two weeks aggregate in favour of Anderson 8-6 and is 11/10 with Boylesports to win the market. The pressure in my view will be on Bullyboy to get something and the potential lack of rhythm consistency may be the issue.
Rob Cross is in a good place at the moment and throws first against Daryl Gurney, who has seen some resurgence in recent times to avoid relegation and be in contention in fifth place.
Rob Cross has lost just once in the last eight and in our view can make it 3/3 at best priced 10/11 with Bwin and Sportingbet and will punish Gurney where required.
The rest of the card could see some good results, however Whitlock could inflict further pain on Barney’s losing streak and is best 15/8 at Betstars and a poor 11/8 with Winner where that firm will certainly be on top with that price if backers take it.
The final game has the maximum line chalked at 7.5 and in my experience players competing twice often lag somewhat in the second game so 4/5 with Coral for fewer than eight maximums in twelve or less legs is worth a consideration.
Anderson - Most 180s vs Smith - 11/10 BetVictor - 0.75 pts
Rob Cross to beat Daryl Gurney - 10/11 Boylesports 1.5 Pts
Anderson/Cross U 7.5 180s 4/5 Coral 1pt
Last week was a real disappointment as stat heavy bets saw a small loss but settlement of Ante Post bets saw our wounds healed quicker.
Into phase two and a race to finals night sees five games with two players battling twice.
Raymond van Barneveld v Daryl Gurney
Head-to-head: Barney leads 3-1
Daryl Gurney became a father last week as we lost a Darting icon Eric Bristow but has fought tooth and nail to avoid elimination at the first hurdle and is 9/4 to make finals night with Paddy Power.
Last week Barney was just 6/4 on sealing finals night and defeat to Bullyboy has seen his price drift to 3’s at Paddy Power.
The previous meeting saw a tie at 6-6 back in Week One but it was a contest Superchin should have won and crumbled. On the night hitting five 180s building up a 6-3 lead only to not seize all the points
Barney was stunned last week being whitewashed by Michael Smith so not knowing his frame of mind coming into this could swing in favour of the Irishman and feel on the maximums Gurney has Barney’s number at an acceptable 7/10 with Bwin.
Gary Anderson v Peter Wright
H2H: Anderson leads 24-13
Outside of the Premier League Wright has performed well to make three finals in weeks gone by but managed to make the top eight with just a single win.
Gary Anderson blew a stat heavy bet last week and had attempts to win it for us but is evidently blowing hot and cold.
I feel that Wright generally plays a better game against his fellow Scot and needs to seize the advantage and could see off his average line set at 98.5 at 17/20 with Bwin and Sportingbet is worth a small play.
Simon Whitlock v Michael van Gerwen
H2H: Van Gerwen leads 30-5
Michael van Gerwen has already beaten Simon Whitlock twice in 2018, making it 11 straight wins against the Wizard.
Whitlock has reacted well to Thursday nights again and is in contention for the top four as long as he maintains scoring power which should ensure he stays in the match but his doubles can be his Achilles heel under pressure.
MVG generally has a lacklustre leg but now phase two has kicked in will want to motor away and secure his place to the o2 albeit being all but there according to odds compilers.
Michael Smith v Rob Cross
H2H: Cross leads 6-1
Bully Boy was beaten in their first meeting this campaign back on Night Five and Cross is firing on all cylinders with a very steady approach.
Smith should not be complacent after whitewashing Barney and then winning a Tour event last Saturday and is playing some of the darts we all know he is capable of. Cross has won six of his last seven in this competition and may be able to punish Smith if he goes out of rhythm .
Raymond van Barneveld v Peter Wright
H2H: Barney leads 11-8
This is always a difficult fixture to comment on when players have had to toe the oche at the top of the show.
It was three weeks ago where Wright suffered a drubbing 7-1 in a forgettable game for Wright.
This game could either see a finale finish or it drags its heels and although the total maximums line is set at 5.5 I’d rather leave this game alone.
D Gurney Most 180’s 7/10 Sportingbet 2pts
Wright Over 98.5 average Vs Anderson - 17/20 Bwin 1pt
Cross to beat Smith - 1/1 Hills 1pt