A rare post for me these days. Am I semi-retired now? I suppose as you get older and new chapters begin in your life, time is one of the most precious commodities we have. With new relationships come new challenges. We said a while back a more qualitative approach would be taken!
With a saturated (or beyond) market you might say the good old days of this platform are over… From the days of betting challenges to the controversies of affiliation and almost instant restrictions with bookmakers has killed off the passion!
However I am not saying I am back all the time, as it’s something I do not always have the time available but will never put out a bet I would not back myself and standby that!
So where are we heading into the UK World Matchplay Darts?
It begins on Saturday 15th July from 19:00 BST in the UK right through to Sunday 23rd July exclusively in Sky Sports where nine days of darting delights pits 32 individuals where there can be only one winner.
This format is gruelling unlike set play, where you could be 2 sets down but went down 3-2 in legs in both amounting to nothing to a mini session it counting for something! Equally you could be put on the back foot in set play and lose 6-0 in legs to be 2 sets down, whereas in Matchplay format it lends a massive and in most cases an unlikely comeback required.
Now those who have followed over the last 10 years would know I love a darts bet or two… Bookies are increasingly more accurate with the vast amount of fed through algorithm data and player tendency almost takes away most of the perceived value, or have a position well covered so to speak.
The two main markets - 170 finish and 9 dart finish:
9 dart finish - Historically you would get an odds on for no and odds against for yes. A milestone perhaps 4 years ago had the percentages closer than ever with an even money NO price, which again this year is 11/10 with Skybet.
In the last ten years has seen just 3 individuals achieve this, namely Phil Taylor (2014) Gary Anderson (2018) and Gerwyn Price in 2022.
With the standard of darts rising could you back a 9 darter even at 4/5 with any confidence… I thought so, I would not!
What bodes well for the Matchplay is the absolute minimum of 364 chances for the perfect leg (assuming every game was a whitewash)
The other market to consider is the 170 finish. Now there is nothing which warrants backing the NO 170 price at around 8/1 as someone will achieve it surely…
2014 did not see any, but 2015 saw one! Nothing in 2016 but two to compensate the following year. An upward trend with three in 2018, steadying down to two in 2019. Two more in 2020 with just a solitary 170 in the following two years!
So in ten years we have had just one occasion where three or more 170s were hit. Two of the three coincidentally by the same player (Joe Cullen) so how come Sky and 365 are just 1/2 to see three or more? It is the expectation of the outcome materialising and quality of the field dictating this price but is iit justified?
I couldn’t back the 1/2 but would have a nibble on the 6/4!
It’s interesting that the 9 darter and 170 finish is a 10/11 poke so those believing a 9 darter is possible could enhance their price slightly if they jointly believe a BIG fish will land also!
The 170 is circumstantial now in that of a player is left on it and doesn’t need to take the glory they more often than not showboat and leave a single darter if under no threat from the opposition!
Recommendation
Under 2.5 170 finishes - 6/4 Bet365 and Skybet
With a saturated (or beyond) market you might say the good old days of this platform are over… From the days of betting challenges to the controversies of affiliation and almost instant restrictions with bookmakers has killed off the passion!
However I am not saying I am back all the time, as it’s something I do not always have the time available but will never put out a bet I would not back myself and standby that!
So where are we heading into the UK World Matchplay Darts?
It begins on Saturday 15th July from 19:00 BST in the UK right through to Sunday 23rd July exclusively in Sky Sports where nine days of darting delights pits 32 individuals where there can be only one winner.
This format is gruelling unlike set play, where you could be 2 sets down but went down 3-2 in legs in both amounting to nothing to a mini session it counting for something! Equally you could be put on the back foot in set play and lose 6-0 in legs to be 2 sets down, whereas in Matchplay format it lends a massive and in most cases an unlikely comeback required.
Now those who have followed over the last 10 years would know I love a darts bet or two… Bookies are increasingly more accurate with the vast amount of fed through algorithm data and player tendency almost takes away most of the perceived value, or have a position well covered so to speak.
The two main markets - 170 finish and 9 dart finish:
9 dart finish - Historically you would get an odds on for no and odds against for yes. A milestone perhaps 4 years ago had the percentages closer than ever with an even money NO price, which again this year is 11/10 with Skybet.
In the last ten years has seen just 3 individuals achieve this, namely Phil Taylor (2014) Gary Anderson (2018) and Gerwyn Price in 2022.
With the standard of darts rising could you back a 9 darter even at 4/5 with any confidence… I thought so, I would not!
What bodes well for the Matchplay is the absolute minimum of 364 chances for the perfect leg (assuming every game was a whitewash)
The other market to consider is the 170 finish. Now there is nothing which warrants backing the NO 170 price at around 8/1 as someone will achieve it surely…
2014 did not see any, but 2015 saw one! Nothing in 2016 but two to compensate the following year. An upward trend with three in 2018, steadying down to two in 2019. Two more in 2020 with just a solitary 170 in the following two years!
So in ten years we have had just one occasion where three or more 170s were hit. Two of the three coincidentally by the same player (Joe Cullen) so how come Sky and 365 are just 1/2 to see three or more? It is the expectation of the outcome materialising and quality of the field dictating this price but is iit justified?
I couldn’t back the 1/2 but would have a nibble on the 6/4!
It’s interesting that the 9 darter and 170 finish is a 10/11 poke so those believing a 9 darter is possible could enhance their price slightly if they jointly believe a BIG fish will land also!
The 170 is circumstantial now in that of a player is left on it and doesn’t need to take the glory they more often than not showboat and leave a single darter if under no threat from the opposition!
Recommendation
Under 2.5 170 finishes - 6/4 Bet365 and Skybet